Executive Summary

Q3 2025 revenue rose 3.1% YoY to $1.377B and Adjusted EBITDA increased 2.4% to $341M; AFFO rose 6.3% to $221M (AFFO/share $0.85). Lineage exceeded its prior Q3 Adjusted EBITDA guide ($326–$336M) and Q3 AFFO/share guide ($0.75–$0.79) set last quarter .
Against S&P Global consensus, revenue was essentially in line (slight miss), Primary EPS missed, and S&P’s EBITDA metric missed (note: S&P’s EBITDA differs from company-reported Adjusted EBITDA, which exceeded company guidance) [GetEstimates Q3 2025]* .
FY25 guidance moved to the low end: Adjusted EBITDA to $1.290–$1.305B (from $1.290–$1.340B) and AFFO/share to $3.20–$3.30 (from $3.20–$3.40). Q4 guide: Adjusted EBITDA $319–$334M, AFFO/share $0.68–$0.78 .
Management cited tariff uncertainty (notably a ~~20% drop in West Coast ocean containers) and slightly lower U.S. occupancy (offset by international strength) as primary drags; 2026 interest expense is preliminarily guided to $340–$360M (~~$80M increase YoY), a key forward headwind .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well
- Exceeded internal guide: Q3 Adjusted EBITDA of $341M topped prior $326–$336M guidance; AFFO/share $0.85 exceeded $0.75–$0.79 guide .
- GIS strength: Global Integrated Solutions NOI +16% YoY to $65M with margin up 250 bps to 17.9% on strong U.S. transportation and DTC .
- Sequential operating improvements: Same-store physical occupancy rose ~50 bps sequentially; minimum storage guarantees increased to 46.7%, supporting price stability; LinOS deployments delivered double-digit productivity improvements .
What Went Wrong
- Macro/tariffs and U.S. mix pressured outlook: Management reduced Q4 NOI outlook due to tariff uncertainty (West Coast ocean containers down ~20% vs earlier trend) and slightly lower U.S. occupancy, driving FY guide to the low end .
- Same-warehouse softness: Same-store NOI fell 3.6% YoY; same-store margins compressed 70 bps; global warehousing total margin down 150 bps YoY amid competitive U.S. markets .
- GAAP earnings remain negative: Q3 diluted EPS was $(0.44) driven by depreciation, amortization, and non-operating items (including goodwill/intangibles impairments and other nonoperating expenses), despite stable Adjusted EBITDA margins .

Financial Results

Metric	Q3 2024	Q2 2025	Q3 2025
Revenue ($M)	1,335	1,350	1,377
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)	333	326	341
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)	24.9%	24.1%	24.8%
AFFO ($M)	208	211	221
AFFO per diluted share ($)	0.90	0.81	0.85
Diluted EPS (GAAP, $)	(2.44)	(0.03)	(0.44)

Segment performance (Q3 2025 vs prior year):

Segment	Q3 2024	Q3 2025
Global Warehousing Revenue ($M)	972	1,013
Global Warehousing NOI ($M)	383	384
Global Integrated Solutions Revenue ($M)	363	364
Global Integrated Solutions NOI ($M)	56	65

Key operating KPIs:

KPI (Global Warehousing)	Q3 2024	Q3 2025
Physical Occupancy (%)	75.4%	73.7%
Storage Rev per Physical Occupied Pallet ($)	68.32	68.91
Throughput Pallets (000s)	13,188	14,137
Same-warehouse NOI ($M)	364	351
Minimum Storage Guarantees (% of rent & storage revenue)	44.9% (Q2’25 seq ref)	46.7%

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Adjusted EBITDA ($B)	FY 2025	1.290–1.340	1.290–1.305	Lowered to low end
AFFO per share ($)	FY 2025	3.20–3.40	3.20–3.30	Lowered (upper bound)
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)	Q4 2025	—	319–334	New Q4 guide
AFFO per share ($)	Q4 2025	—	0.68–0.78	New Q4 guide
Same WH NOI Growth (%)	FY 2025	(5) to (3)	(6) to (5)	Lowered
Total WH NOI Growth (%)	FY 2025	(3) to flat	(4) to (3)	Lowered
GIS NOI Growth (%)	FY 2025	+8 to +12	+8 to +10	Narrowed lower
Interest Expense, net ($M)	FY 2025	265–275	267–273	Essentially unchanged midpoint
Recurring Maintenance Capex ($M)	FY 2025	180–195	175–185	Lowered midpoint

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q1 2025, Q2 2025)	Current Period (Q3 2025)	Trend
Tariffs/Macro/Trade	Heightened uncertainty flagged; maintaining FY guide but monitoring tariffs . Muted seasonal occupancy; tariff uncertainty increasing in 2H outlook .	FY and Q4 guidance moved to low end due to tariff uncertainty and weaker U.S. occupancy; West U.S. ocean containers down ~20% vs trend .	Worsened near term
Supply dynamics	—; capacity additions cited in general. Q2: industry supply elevated; reduced 2H occupancy assumptions .	U.S. PRW supply up ~14.5% (2021–2025); 2026 new capacity outlook down to ~1.5% (CBRE) .	Easing post-2025
Pricing	Normal seasonality; productivity offsets . Q2: pricing improved sequentially; stability expected .	Net price increase 1–2% in 2025; targeting low single-digit increases in 2026 without sacrificing occupancy .	Stable/modestly positive
Occupancy	Same-store physical 76.5% in Q1; normal seasonality . Q2: 73.3%, muted build .	Sequential pickup in same-store; Q4 outlook ~77% maintained .	Gradual improvement
LinOS/Technology	Pilots exceeding expectations; productivity offsets .	Progress continued .	7 sites deployed; double-digit productivity improvements; 10 sites by YE .
Regional trends	—	—	International occupancy slightly better than U.S.; U.S. impacted by tariffs/competition .
Capacity rationalization	—	—	Idled 8 buildings YTD; expect consolidation as high-basis new operators struggle; selective M&A .

Management Commentary

“We delivered Adjusted EBITDA and AFFO growth in the third quarter… we are lowering our NOI outlook due to… tariff uncertainty… and slightly lower occupancy in the US… moving our full-year Adjusted EBITDA and AFFO per share guidance to the lower end of our previous ranges.” — Greg Lehmkuhl, CEO .
“We saw a sequential 180 bps increase in our minimum storage guarantees to 46.7% as our customers continue to want to secure space across our network.” — CEO .
“We’ve deployed [LinOS] in seven conventional sites… double-digit productivity improvements in key metrics like units per hour… expect to complete 10 deployments by year-end.” — CEO .
“We are providing a very early look for 2026… interest expense… approximately $340–$360M… ~ $80M higher than this year.” — CFO .

Q&A Highlights

Guidance drivers: Lower U.S. new business and tariff-driven import/export softness (notably seafood) reduced Q4 same-warehouse NOI; services revenue tied to containers also weighs on GIS .
Pricing durability: Net price increases of 1–2% in 2025 achieved; targeting low single-digit increases in 2026 without giving up occupancy despite supply .
Regional mix: International performing slightly better; U.S. pockets seeing competitive pressure (e.g., Chicago, Florida); some key markets have absorbed recent new supply (NJ, Dallas, Houston) .
Network optimization: Idled 8 buildings to lower labor/energy and consolidate volumes; expect capacity exits/consolidation among high-basis new entrants; will be selective on acquisition opportunities .
Q4 AFFO sensitivity: Range driven by seasonal maintenance capex ($5–$10M swing) and year-end services activity tied to tariffs/containers .

Estimates Context

Q3 2025 actuals vs S&P Global consensus:

Metric	Q3 2025 Actual	Q3 2025 Consensus
Revenue ($M)	1,377	1,378.8*
Primary EPS (GAAP, $)	0.0263*	0.0424*
EBITDA ($M, S&P definition)	299.0*	336.6*
Target Price (Consensus, $)	44.72*	44.72*

Notes:

Company-reported Adjusted EBITDA was $341M (beat internal guide), while S&P’s EBITDA metric shows an “actual” of $299M versus consensus $336.6M; definitions differ (company Adjusted EBITDA excludes items such as FX, stock comp, etc.) [GetEstimates Q3 2025]*.
Company highlights AFFO/share ($0.85) rather than FFO/share; S&P consensus includes FFO/share (0.483*). The company did not provide FFO/share; Adjusted FFO/share is not directly comparable to FFO/share [GetEstimates Q3 2025]*.

Values marked with * are retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

Internal execution stronger than feared: Q3 beat internal Adjusted EBITDA and AFFO/share guidance; GIS outperformance and productivity initiatives (LinOS) are offsetting some macro headwinds .
Near-term headwinds persist: Tariff uncertainty and softer U.S. occupancy weigh on Q4 and push FY guidance to the low end; services revenue tied to container flows is particularly sensitive into year-end .
Pricing resiliency: Despite excess U.S. capacity, net price increases of 1–2% in 2025 and targeted low single-digit for 2026 underscore customer willingness to pay for service/footprint; rising minimum guarantees add support .
2026 earnings headwind: Interest expense expected to step up ~$80M in 2026 as hedges roll, partially offset by lower forward rates and returns from capital deployment; factor into medium-term AFFO modeling .
Capacity rationalization underway: Idling of older sites and likely consolidation among high-basis new entrants should help rebalance supply over time; CBRE expects new U.S. PRW supply to decelerate to ~1.5% in 2026 .
Watch list for Q4/early 2026: Container trends (tariffs), U.S. occupancy, GIS activity, LinOS rollout cadence, and maintenance capex swing factors; sequential occupancy is trending to plan, but revenue mix and services remain variable .
Long-term positioning intact: Largest global footprint, stable food demand, rising guarantees, and tech-driven productivity provide operating leverage as supply/demand normalizes .

Appendices

Actual vs prior period and YoY (selected):

Q3 revenue $1,377M (+$42M YoY; +$27M QoQ); Adjusted EBITDA $341M (+$8M YoY; +$15M QoQ); AFFO/share $0.85 (−$0.05 YoY; +$0.04 QoQ) .
Global Warehousing: revenue +4.2% YoY to $1,013M; NOI +0.3% to $384M; margin 37.9% (−150 bps YoY). Same-warehouse NOI −3.6% YoY .
GIS: revenue flat; NOI +16% YoY; margin +250 bps to 17.9% .

All financials cited from company filings and materials as referenced. S&P Global consensus and actuals marked with * are retrieved from S&P Global.

Lineage, Inc. (LINE)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary